Funeral home call volume and market share calculator
Call volume is the number buyers and lenders watch most, and it only means something next to the deaths in your market. Enter local deaths, your calls, and a competitor scenario to see your share today and a range of calls a few years out.
How to use the funeral home call volume and market share calculator
- Describe the market. Enter annual resident deaths for your service area and the annual change in deaths you expect, using local data you can source.
- Enter your calls. Enter your three-year average annual calls from the case register.
- Set the competitor case. Enter the share of your calls a new competitor could take. Use zero to see only the share-holds case.
- Choose the horizon. Pick how many years forward to project, then compare projected calls with and without the competitor.
What the calculator does
It divides your annual calls by annual deaths in your market to get market share. It then grows the death count by the annual change you enter, compounded over the years you choose, and applies your current share to the projected deaths. That is the “share holds” case. The competitor case removes the percentage of your calls you think a new entrant could take, which shows how many calls are at risk and what your share would become. The math is simple on purpose: the value is in forcing each assumption into the open, the same way a buyer does when underwriting call volume.
How to choose the inputs
Use resident deaths for the county or the ZIP codes you serve, from your state vital statistics office or CDC WONDER, and average at least three years. Your calls should be a three-year average from the case register, counted the same way every year. For the annual change in deaths, use a local trend you can document rather than a national figure; our guide to mortality trends and call volume explains why local age structure matters. The competitor percentage is a judgment call. Base it on the entrant’s model: a direct-cremation provider tends to draw price-sensitive families, while a full-service firm competes on relationships. If you serve parts of two counties, count only deaths from the areas your families come from: a share measured against too large a market looks weaker than it is, and one measured against too small a market looks stronger.
How buyers, sellers, and lenders use the result
Buyers compare share across years: a firm holding steady share in a shrinking county is in better shape than one losing share in a growing one. Lenders want to see that projected calls still cover debt service in the downside case, so run the competitor case before you size a loan. Sellers can use the result to show that a dip in calls came from the market, not the firm. If a competitor has already opened, read selling when a competitor opens nearby before deciding whether to go to market now.
What it leaves out
Deaths are not the only driver. Families move, hospice and hospital referral patterns change, and a church or community tie can hold calls that a pure share model would lose. The calculator treats the competitor loss as a one-time step rather than a gradual ramp, and it projects calls, not revenue. To turn calls into dollars, pair it with the cremation mix-shift calculator or the valuation calculator. Run a downside case with a lower death trend as well as a competitor, because buyers will. Every default is a placeholder, not a market statistic.
Related reading
Frequently asked questions
Where do I find the number of deaths in my county?
Most state vital statistics offices publish deaths by county of residence each year, and CDC WONDER lets you query county-level death counts. Use deaths of residents, not deaths that occurred in the county, and average several years so one unusual year does not distort your market share.
What is a good market share for a funeral home?
There is no published benchmark that applies everywhere. Share depends on how many firms serve the market, how far families travel, and how you define the market. What buyers watch is direction: stable or rising share over three to five years supports value, and falling share invites hard questions.
Should I use national death projections for the growth input?
Only as a starting point. National totals can rise while a rural county shrinks, or the reverse. A local trend from your own county data is more defensible, and buyers will usually build their own projection from the same sources, so match your assumption to what they can check.
How much call volume can a new competitor take?
It varies with the competitor’s model, location, and pricing, and no reliable industry figure exists. Test a few percentages rather than one. If the deal only works when the competitor takes nothing, treat that as a warning about the price or the structure, not as a forecast.